What the odds say
The market frames Norway as slight favourites at 2.04, with Côte d'Ivoire out at 3.70 and the draw at 3.40. Read those carefully, because they apply only to ninety minutes. A draw here does not mean a refunded night; it means extra time and a possible shootout. So if you back Norway to win in regular time at 2.04, you need them to be ahead at the final whistle, not merely to advance. A separate qualification market would price Norway shorter, since they would also carry the draw scenario into extra time. The standout number for me is Both Teams To Score Yes at 1.66, and it sits perfectly with the profile: Norway have leaked seven tournament goals, Côte d'Ivoire have scored in every group match. Over 2.5 at 1.82 is also tempting.
Readiness of Côte d'Ivoire and Norway for a knockout match
Côte d'Ivoire are the tidier defensive unit, two clean sheets in three, just two goals conceded, built around Ousmane Diomande and Kossounou. Their attack is lower-volume, 1.1 xG per game, but Pépé is in red-hot form and Yan Diomande and Amad offer one-v-one venom in transition. Singo is a fitness doubt, which weakens that wide athleticism. Emerse Faé has a compact, athletic, bench-deep side that can sit and strike.
Norway are the opposite study. An 1.8 xG average, 2.7 goals per game, Haaland already with four goals and Ødegaard pulling strings. But the defence is the soft underbelly, conceding in every World Cup match and just one clean sheet in ten. Ryerson is doubtful, which could force a right-back reshuffle, precisely the channel Ivorian pace wants to attack. The freshness of Norway's rested starters is the big variable.
The central duel is obvious: Diomande and Kossounou against Haaland's box movement. Stop the service, and Norway look ordinary; let crosses flow, and the Norwegians punish.
Match prediction and possible scenario after 90 minutes
I expect a balanced opening, with Norway holding more possession and Côte d'Ivoire lurking on the counter. The tempo should be measured rather than frantic, because the Ivorians will not over-commit. That said, Norway's leaky back line and the Ivorians' habit of scoring make a goalless evening unlikely. A 1-2 type scoreline feels right, with both finding the net.
If it stays level, extra time favours Norway's superior bench firepower, Sørloth and Nusa can change a tiring game, and Haaland remains a constant threat. On penalties, Norway's spot-kick quality through Haaland and Ødegaard edges Côte d'Ivoire, though Yahia Fofana could keep his side alive.
My lean: Both Teams To Score Yes at 1.66 is the value, with Norway win at 2.04 as the bolder alternative. I expect Norway to advance, probably 1-2.